The Road to a Championship Isn’t Linear
Lessons from the 2016-2020 Celtics and the 2020-22 Atlanta Hawks
The Latest
The Celtics lost to the New York Knicks 105-108 on a heart-breaking three pointer from an otherwise quiet RJ Barrett.
The Celtics rebounded to beat the New York Knicks 99-75 at home, though the Knicks were without Evan Fournier after he torched the C’s in the previous game.
The Celtics and Indiana Pacers ended regulation tied at 89, with the Celtics pulling ahead to beat the Pacers 101-98 in overtime.
The Celtics beat the Indiana Pacers a second time this week 119-100 behind 30+ point performances from both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
The Feature: The Road to a Championship Isn’t Linear
From 2016 to 2020 the Boston Celtics advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals three times in four years. In that first 2016-17 season the team was led by Isaiah Thomas, who averaged 28.9 points per game, and was rounded out by players like Al Horford, Avery Bradly, Jae Crowder, and Marcus Smart. Jaylen Brown was on this Celtics team, but he averaged only 6.6 points per game on 17.2 minutes of playing time.
In the 2017-18 season the C’s again made it to the Eastern Conference Finals. Now joined by the rookie Jayson Tatum, the team took a LeBron James led Cavaliers team to seven games and nearly made it to the NBA Finals. Though Kyrie Irving led the team in the regular season, he was out for the playoffs. This postseason run was led by Tatum (18.5 ppg) and Brown (18.0 ppg). It was this run that launched the belief that Tatum and Brown could be a young, contending duo in the league.
In the 2018-19 season the Celtics lost to the Bucks in the second round of the playoffs. In the following season in 2019-20 the Celtics again returned to the Eastern Conference Finals. Tatum (25.7 ppg) and Brown (21.8 ppg) both became even more potent scorers in the playoffs, but with Kemba Walker’s knee issues and an in-and-out Gordon Hayward, the Celtics just didn’t have enough to get past the Miami Heat. Yet the picture for this team had become clear: get the right players around Tatum and Brown, and this team could win.
The team history since then is less of a happy story. In 2020-21 the Celtics lost to the Nets in the first round of the playoffs after having to beat the Wizards in a play-in game just to make the playoffs. And as of now the Celtics sit at a 21-21 record with pundits recently questioning whether the duo of Tatum and Brown should be broken-up. So how do we make sense of this recent downward trend after a seemingly upward trajectory the past several years?
One way is to look at another team grappling with a similar reality: the Atlanta Hawks. Last year the Hawks made a surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals, beating the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers before falling to the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks in six games. It looked like Trae Young had emerged as a star, and that the midseason change in coach from Lloyd Pierce to Nate McMillan had brought together the potential on the Hawk’s roster.
But fast forward to this season, and the Hawks have a 17-23 record and are just as far from being one of the worst three teams in the East as they are from making the play-in tournament.
So what do the 2020-22 Hawks tell us about the Celtics?
For one, they tell us that a team’s past performance is no guarantee of future success. Atlanta Hawks General Manager Travis Schlenk recently appeared on 92.9 FM The Game to vent about this team: “It's my responsibility to put a product on the floor that can win, and right now, I'm not sure I have done that.” Schlenk went on to say that this Hawks team has been hard to watch, and has seemed in disarray at times with one of the leagues worst defences.
Schlenk followed these statements by offering that, “Maybe it wasn’t such a great idea to bring everyone back.” That statement should sound familiar to Celtics fans who have similarly heard Brad Stevens talk about a need to make roster changes, and it mirrors the calls from pundits for both of these teams to rework their rosters.
But can a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals just last year get this bad this quickly? And in the case of the Celtics, does a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals three times in four years need to see it’s two all-stars broken up in order to succeed?
This raises a bigger question about what are realistic expectations for teams with young stars. There is no doubt that fans and general managers want their teams to win now, and that the pressure to turn around a team quickly weighs heavily on franchises. But can we expect this kind of quick, linear development from young stars?
If we look back at some recent stars, we can start to get an answer. Giannis Antetokounmpo won his first championship last year at age 26. LeBron James and Michael Jordan both won their first championships at age 27. And Devin Booker made it to the NBA Finals last year at age 24 after the addition of Chris Paul to a young Phoenix Suns team.
The Suns may make it to the Finals again this year after a hot start to the season, but they have a tough road. The Suns could just as likely be a similar story of regression if they lose to the veteran Warriors, offensive powerhouse Jazz, or high confidence Grizzlies in this year’s playoffs.
The reality is that stars just don’t win young in the NBA. Right now, Brown is 25 and Tatum is 23. On the Hawks, Young is also 23. These players still need to grow. Even if they are ahead of the curve like Giannis, there are a few more years of growth before any of these players are likely ready to lead their teams to a championship.
So this comes back to my point: the road to a championship often isn’t linear, nor is it quick.
And if you’re still not convinced, just look at the last Celtics’s team to win it all. Among the team’s big three, Paul Pierce was 31, Kevin Garnett was 32, and Ray Allen was 32. Pierce had to endure some terrible losing seasons before the path to a championship became real for those Celtics teams. But it happened with a group of players well past their early 20s.
In the context of the histories of other rising stars in the league, the current Celtics aren’t in such as unusual position (and neither are the Hawks). So what does that mean for these teams and for fans? Certainly trades are needed to create rosters that complement these young stars. But that, along with the continued development of these young players, will take time. So what should fans do for now?
Enjoy the team. Enjoy the journey. History tells us it isn’t likely that this team will have a quick or linear road to a championship. But we’ve already seen two young players develop into all-stars, and we have a good chance of seeing these two all-star players grow into championship contenders, and hopefully, championship winners. And that will make it all the more satisfying when we do win that next banner.
By the Numbers
41
The number of points former Celtic and now New York Knick Evan Fournier scored against the Celtics in Madison Square Garden, a new career high for Fournier.
1
The number of career triple-doubles for Jaylen Brown after his 22 point, 11 assist, 11 rebound game against the New York Knicks in Boston.
3.4
The number of blocks Robert Williams III is averaging over the last 10 games, the most in the league over this span.
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